-->
专题推送—Carbon Tax
碳道小编 · 2018-08-06 07:08 · 阅读量 · 334
摘要:一般均衡模型是目前探讨该问题时使用最频繁的方法,因此本次推文的主题是:碳税政策实施对经济的影响--基于CGE模型。
编辑:李 军(西南财经大学)
审稿:马嫣然(中科院战略院)
仅用于学术交流,原文版权归原作者和原发刊所有
中国经济增长面临着“高能耗”和“高排放”的双重压力, 实施碳税是政府在未来积极应对气候变化和促进节能减排的有效政策工具,然而碳税在减少CO2排放的同时也会对整个经济体系产生影响。研究碳税实现减排同时造成的经济成本,对政府进行减排政策及碳税税率设定的选择具有重要政策意义。目前已经有大量研究基于不同的研究方法,如一般均衡模型,面板回归分析,投入产出分析探讨了征收碳税对经济的潜在影响。一般均衡模型是目前探讨该问题时使用最频繁的方法,因此本次推文的主题是:碳税政策实施对经济的影响--基于CGE模型。
The impact of a carbon tax on the Susquehanna River Basin economy
AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy
The impacts of carbon tax and complementary policies on Chinese economy
Carbon taxation and market structure: A CGE analysis for Russia
Carbon taxation in Russia: Prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency
Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors
The economic and environmental impact of a carbon tax for Scotland: A computable general equilibrium analysis
The Economic impact of different carbon tax revenue recycling schemes in China: A model-based scenario analysis
Impact of a carbon tax on the Chilean economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis
The energy, environmental and economic impacts of carbon tax rate and taxation industry: A CGE based study in China
Energy Economics (1999)
Rajnish Kamat (University of California at Berkeley)
Adam Rose (The Pennsylvania State University)
David Abler (The Pennsylvania State University)
摘要
This paper presents the first study of the economic impacts of a carbon tax on an environmentally delineated, sub-national area. The study is based on a 32-sector computable general equilibrium model of the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) of the US. A special feature of the analysis is that it incorporates changes in prices of traded goods facing the focal region as a result of the imposition of a tax imposed globally. The results show that a tax of $16.96 per ton of carbon could have rather negligible negative impacts on the SRB economy as a whole, but that the negative impacts on its energy industries could be sizeable. Also, several sensitivity tests on closure rules and key parameter values indicate that the results are rather robust.
Ecological Economics (2007)
Wiepke Wissema (Trinity College Dublin)
Rob Dellink (Wageningen University)
摘要
A computable general equilibrium model with specific detail in taxation and energy use is developed in this paper to quantify the impact of the implementation of energy taxation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland. Benchmark data combining physical energy and emissions data and economic data in the form of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) had to be compiled from various data sources, because energy and pollution accounts from the SEEA are not available for Ireland. We find that the reduction target for energy related CO2 emissions in Ireland of 25.8% compared to 1998 levels can be achieved with a carbon energy tax of 10–15 euros per tonne of CO2. Though fuel switching is important in meeting the target, this result is more sensitive to the possibilities for producers to substitute away from energy use. Welfare would fall but only by small percentages. Production and consumption patterns would change more significantly, with a shift in demand from fuels with a high emission factor to energy sources with a lower carbon-intensity and from energy to other commodities. This paper confirms that a carbon energy tax leads to greater emission reductions than an equivalent uniform energy tax. The latter has a stronger negative impact on the less polluting energy sectors whereas the carbon tax greatly stimulates the use of renewable energy and reduces the use of peat and coal. The new SAM, the model and the application to energy taxes contribute to a better informed debate on environmental policy in Ireland.
Energy Policy (2010)
Chuanyi Lu (Tsinghua University)
Qing Tong (Tsinghua University)
Xuemei Liu (California State University)
摘要
Under the pressure of global warming, it is imperative for Chinese government to impose effective policy instruments to promote domestic energy saving and carbon emissions reduction. As one of the most important incentive-based policy instruments, carbon tax has sparked a lively controversy in China. This paper explores the impact of carbon tax on Chinese economy, as well as the cushion effects of the complementary policies, by constructing a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model. The model can describe the new equilibrium for each sequential independent period (e.g. one year) after carbon tax and the complementary policies are imposed, and thus describe the long-term impacts of the policies. The simulation results show that carbon tax is an effective policy tool because it can reduce carbon emissions with a little negative impact on economic growth; reducing indirect tax in the meantime of imposing carbon tax will help to reduce the negative impact of the tax on production and competitiveness; in addition, giving households subsidy in the meantime will help to stimulate household consumptions. Therefore, complementary policies used together with carbon tax will help to cushion the negative impacts of carbon tax on the economy. The dynamic CGE analysis shows the impact of carbon tax policy on the GDP is relatively small, but the reduction of carbon emission is relatively large.
Energy Policy (2012)
Anton Orlov (University of Hohenheim)
Harald Grethe (University of Hohenheim)
摘要
Russia is one of the world’s major sources of carbon based energy as well as one its most intensive users. Introducing carbon taxes can lead to a reduction in emissions and encourage investment in energy efficiency. We investigate the economic effects of carbon taxes on the Russian economy under perfect competition and a Cournot oligopoly in output markets. The main findings are: (i) substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can yield a strong double dividend in Russia; however, welfare gains strongly depend on the labour supply elasticity and elasticities of substitution between capital, labour, and energy. (ii) Under the assumption of a Cournot oligopoly with homogenous products and sym- metric firms in the markets for natural gas, petroleum and chemical products, metals, and minerals, welfare costs of the environmental tax reform can be higher than under perfect competition. This is because introducing carbon taxes leads to a reduction in already sub-optimal output, thereby exacerbating pre-existing distortions arising from imperfect competition. (iii) Furthermore, increases in energy costs can result in higher mark-ups in some markets because of less competition resulting from firms’ exit.
Energy Economics (2013)
Anton Orlov (University of Hohenheim)
Harald Grethe (University of Hohenheim)
Scott McDonald (Oxford Brookes University)
摘要
This study analyses the sectoral and macroeconomic impact of carbon taxes on the Russian economy, one of the world's most energy- and carbon-intensive economies, while assessing the hypothesis of a double dividend. Substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can reduce GHG emissions and enhance welfare by improving the efficiency of the tax system — a strong double dividend. The analyses confirm, when capital is not internationally mobile, that a double dividend is likely to occur under (i) a high elasticity of labour supply, (ii) high elasticities of substitution between labour and the capital-energy aggregate, (iii) low elasticities of substitution between capital and energy. It is the tax-shifting effect between capital and labour that is crucial. In contrast, welfare losses resulting from the environmental tax reform may be substantial if capital is internationally mobile.
Energy Economics (2014)
Zhengquan Guo (North China Electric Power University)
Xingping Zhang (North China Electric Power University)
Yuhua Zheng (China University of Mining and Technology)
Rao Rao (North China Electric Power University)
摘要
This paper applies a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and carbon emissions based on China's 2010 Input–Output Table. To obtain robust simulation results, we further disaggregate the energy sectors into eight departments according to energy use characteristics. The empirical results indicate that a moderate carbon tax would significantly reduce carbon emissions and fossil fuel energy consumption and slightly reduce the pace of economic growth. However, a large carbon tax has a significantly negative impact on China's economy and social welfare. Moreover, a large carbon tax would entail marked price changes in China. Of the fossil fuels in use, reducing coal consumption would have the greatest impact on reducing carbon emissions, and the ad valorem duty rate for coal would be the highest after levying a carbon tax because it has the highest carbon emission coefficient. Therefore, China should strive to promote clean coal technology, which may be crucial to reducing carbon emissions. Moreover, levying a carbon tax would improve the use of clean energy, which would be an effective means of reducing carbon emissions. Therefore, the Chinese government should formulate the regulations for and pass a carbon tax as early as possible to achieve its carbon emission abatement target and further contribute to mitigating climate change.
Ecological Economics (2014)
Grant Allan (University of Strathclyde; Strathclyde International Public Policy Institute)
Patrizio Lecca (University of Strathclyde; Strathclyde International Public Policy Institute;Centre for Constitutional Change)
Peter McGregor (University of Strathclyde; Strathclyde International Public Policy Institute; Centre for Constitutional Change)
Kim Swales (University of Strathclyde; Strathclyde International Public Policy Institute; Centre for Constitutional Change)
摘要Using a disaggregated energy–economy–environmental model, we investigate the economic and environmental impact of a Scottish specific carbon tax under three alternative assumptions about the use of the revenue raised by the tax: revenues raised are not recycled within Scotland; revenues are used to increase general government expenditure or to reduce Scottish income tax. Wefind that by imposing a tax of £50 per tonne of CO2 the 37% CO2 reduction target is met with a very rapid adjustment in all three cases if the model incorporates forward-looking behaviour. However, the adjustment is much slower if agents are myopic. In addition, the results of the model suggest that a carbon tax might simultaneously stimulate economic activity whilst reducing emissions and thus secure a double dividend, but only for the case in which the revenue is recycled through income tax.
Applied Energy (2015)
Yu Liu (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Yingying Lu (Australian National University)
摘要
As an important policy instrument for climate mitigation, the carbon tax policy design and its consequent social-economic impact calls for more research. In this paper, a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – CASIPM-GE model is applied to explore the impact of a carbon tax and different tax revenue recycling schemes on China’s economy. Simulation results show that the carbon tax is effective to reduce carbon emissions with mild impact on China’s macro economy. In particular, a production tax deduction can be used to recycle the carbon tax revenue if the government wants to reduce the cost of a carbon tax; however, a consumption tax deduction may help the economy to restructure and may benefit the long-run emissions reduction. In terms of industrial output, most industries are negatively affected; sectors with large share of exports are subjected to negative shocks if there is consumption tax deduction financed by the carbon tax revenue. The study suggests that carbon revenue recycling scheme is important in designing the carbon tax policy: a well-designed scheme can help reduce the cost of a carbon tax.
Energy Economics (2016)
José Miguel García Benavente (University of Edinburgh Business School)
摘要In 2009, the government of Chile announced their official commitment to reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below a business-as-usual projection by 2020. Due to the fact that an effective way to reduce emissions is to implement a national carbon tax, the goal of this article is to quantify the value of a carbon tax that will allow the achievement of the emission reduction target and to assess its impact on the economy.
The approach used in this work is to compare the economy before and after the implementation of the carbon tax by creating a static computable general equilibrium model of the Chilean economy. The model developed here disaggregates the economy in 23 industries and 23 commodities, and it uses four consumer agents (households, government, investment, and the rest of the world). By setting specific production and consumptions functions, the model can assess the variation in commodity prices, industrial production, and agent consumption, allowing a cross-sectoral analysis of the impact of the carbon tax. The benchmark of the economy, upon which the analysis is based, came from a social accounting matrix specially constructed for this model, based on the year 2010.
The carbon tax was modeled as an ad valorem tax under two scenarios: tax on emissions from fossil fuels burned only by producers and tax on emissions from fossil fuels burned by producers and households. The abatement cost curve has shown that it is more cost-effective to tax only producers, rather than to tax both producers and households. This is due to the fact that when compared to the emission level observed in 2010, a 20% emission reduction will cause a loss in GDP of 2% and 2.3% respectively. Under the two scenarios, the tax value that could lead to that emission reduction is around 26 US dollars per ton of CO2-equivalent. The most affected productive sectors are oil refinery, transport, and electricity — having a contraction between 7% and 9%. Analyzing the electricity sector by energy source, the production of electricity from fossil fuels will decrease by 11%, but electricity from renewables will increase by 43%. Electricity producers will pass the cost of the carbon tax to the consumer by increasing the price of electricity by 8%.
The findings of this paper will allow policy makers to take better and more informed decisions, by providing a cross-sectoral analysis of the impact on the economy of reducing emissions by 20% by implementing a national carbon tax.
Energy (2018)
Boqiang Lin (Xiamen University)
Zhijie Jia (Xiamen University)
摘要
Human activities have led to increase in carbon dioxide emissions, and carbon tax is one of the main policy tools for reducing global emissions. This paper constructs nine scenarios considering different carbon tax rates and the different taxable industries to analyze the impact of Carbon Tax System (CTS) on energy, environment and the economy. We find that the negative impact of CTS on GDP is acceptable, and the maximum scenario will not exceed 0.5%. If carbon taxes are levied on energy-intensive enterprises, the impact on carbon emissions is also relatively small, even if the carbon tax rate is relatively high. Higher carbon tax rate will result in higher CO2 emission reduction and higher marginal CO2 emission reduction of CTS. The carbon tax rate follows the "law of increasing marginal emission reduction". We also argue that the focus of taxation should be on energy enterprises. It is only in this way that the efficiency of the energy market can be fully implemented to conserve energy and reduce emissions. This paper suggests that China should adopt CTS that simultaneously imposes a higher tax on energy companies and energy-intensive enterprises. This will maximize emissions reductions and have only a small impact on GDP.
来源:能源金融在线